Photo: IPPA photographer, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Israelis vote on Tuesday for a new Knesset, and the final polls point to a familiar outcome: deadlock. The last surveys published before the October 27 election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc and the opposition camp led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot both falling short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member parliament, setting up weeks of coalition bargaining once the ballots are counted.
About 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote. Under Israel's proportional system, voters choose national party lists rather than local candidates, and any party that clears the 3.25 percent electoral threshold wins seats in proportion to its vote — a formula that almost always forces the winner to build a coalition.
What the final polls say
The three main television polls, published on Friday by Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13, agree on the central number: Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing and religious parties sits at exactly 50 seats in all three. The opposition "change bloc" runs ahead of him in each survey, with 52 seats in Kan's poll, 54 in Channel 13's and 56 in Channel 12's. The predominantly Arab parties, counted in neither camp, are projected to win between 14 and 16 seats.
Eisenkot's Yashar party is projected to finish as the largest single faction, with 22 seats in the Kan and Channel 13 polls and 23 in Channel 12's, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud on 19 to 21. Together, the party co-led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is projected to take 14 or 15 seats. Not every survey agrees — a Channel 14 poll, from a station seen as sympathetic to Netanyahu, projected a narrow 62-seat majority for his bloc — and Israeli law barred any new polls from being published after Friday until voting ends.
The challenger
Eisenkot, who commanded Israel's military as chief of staff before entering politics, has built Yashar into the largest projected party in the Knesset within a single election cycle, campaigning on competence and on replacing Netanyahu after years of political turmoil. In Channel 12's head-to-head polling on who is more suitable to be prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by 44 percent to 38 percent, though that gap has narrowed in the final stretch.
Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is asking voters to extend a tenure defined by war, judicial battles and repeated elections. His campaign has argued that only his bloc can deliver a stable right-wing government, and his allies take comfort from the same polls that worry him: his party's voters report the highest intention to turn out.
Small parties, big consequences
With both blocs short, the election may be decided at the margins. Several small lists — including the Reservists-Economic party and the People of Israel party — hover near the 3.25 percent threshold in the final polls; every list that falls below it wastes its votes and reshuffles the seat math for everyone else. The Arab parties add another complication: their projected 14 to 16 seats are large enough to crown a winner, but both main blocs have spent the campaign arguing over whether relying on their support is legitimate. The parties had faced disqualification rulings last month that the Supreme Court overturned.
What happens after Tuesday
Once the results are final, Israel's president will consult party leaders and give one of them the first chance to assemble a coalition of at least 61 seats. If the polls are accurate, that task will be hard for whoever receives it: Eisenkot's camp cannot reach 61 without Arab-party support or a defection from the right, and Netanyahu starts 11 seats short with few obvious partners left to court. Failure on all sides would mean the outcome Israelis know too well — another election.
Sources: Haaretz, Ynet News, The Times of Israel