Photo: Clema12 / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc has moved ahead of his rival's camp as Israel's votes are counted, but remains short of the majority needed to govern, according to partial results published on Wednesday.
With 72.4 percent of ballot boxes counted as of 10:03 a.m. Israel time, figures published by the Central Elections Committee and reported by The Times of Israel give the pro-Netanyahu bloc 54 seats and the bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot 48 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The Arab parties stand at 18 seats after Ra'am gained two.
Earlier in the count, after 51.8 percent of ballots were counted, the Netanyahu bloc was shown to have 55 seats, Eisenkot's bloc 49 and the Arab parties 16, according to AFP. The small shifts between the two snapshots underline that these are partial results: they are likely to change as more votes are counted, and votes cast in double envelopes, including those of soldiers, are counted later.
From exit-poll tie to a Netanyahu lead
The count so far marks a shift from election night, when exit polls put the two blocs neck-and-neck at around 51 seats each, well short of the 61 needed for a majority. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot vowed to form a government despite neither being projected to win a majority.
Turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest in decades and the highest since 1999, as voters delivered their verdict on Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has pushed the country sharply to the right and unleashed a wave of wars in response to Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack.
The strongest gains have come from Arab Israeli parties, whose voters turned out in soaring numbers. The partial results suggest Eisenkot's bloc would have enough seats for a majority if there was a coalition agreement with the Arab parties — but Eisenkot said during the campaign he would not govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers, echoing Netanyahu, who has suggested a government relying on Arab votes would lack legitimacy.
The parties below the threshold
Three parties currently sit below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold, according to the Times of Israel figures: Reservists at 2.7 percent, People of Israel at 1.7 percent and Charedi Public at 0.2 percent. If they stay below the cutoff, their votes will not translate into seats, which could still move the final bloc totals.
Arab lawmakers could also give Eisenkot support in parliamentary votes to maintain a minority government without joining a coalition, AFP noted — one of the narrow paths out of the deadlock if neither bloc reaches 61 seats on its own.
What happens next
Full results are expected by October 29-30, according to The Hindu's report on the count. Only then will coalition consultations begin in earnest, with weeks of bargaining expected given the complex political arithmetic. Until a government is formed, Netanyahu remains in office.
For now, the picture is clearer than on election night but still unresolved: Netanyahu's camp is ahead, the opposition is close behind, Arab parties hold the balance, and no one yet has the numbers to govern.
Sources: The Times of Israel live blog, citing Central Elections Committee figures (72.4% counted as of 10:03 a.m., 54-48-18 split, Ra'am gain, parties below threshold, double-envelope votes counted later); AFP, as reported by Channel News Asia, Khaleej Times, The Hindu and The New Indian Express (51.8% count at 55-49-16, 61-seat majority requirement, 77.7% turnout, both leaders' vows to form a government, Arab-party coalition positions, minority-government possibility, full results by October 29-30). Partial results are not final and will change as counting continues; exit-poll figures cited are projections, not results.