Photo: Master Sgt. Ken Hammond, US Air Force / Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
The United States military has spent more than $47 billion so far fighting the war in Iran, according to Pentagon data obtained by Reuters — a figure more than 25 percent higher than the Defense Department's estimate in July. The estimate has not been shared publicly, and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The disclosure lands one week before the November 3 midterm elections, which will decide control of Congress for the next two years, as Republicans wrestle with the political fallout of an unpopular conflict and voters feel its effect on energy prices.
Where the money went
The Pentagon's latest estimate is tied to the operational costs of carrying out the war. The largest share is the cost of replacing munitions that have already been fired: more than $29 billion, according to the data reviewed by Reuters.
More than $6 billion more would be needed to replace military equipment and so-called "platform losses," including aircraft lost in the fighting — many of them drones.
A separate October 16 assessment by US Central Command, shared with Congress and reported by The Hill, identified nearly $12 billion in additional military operating expenses, including $7.6 billion in Air Force costs covering deployed personnel, airlift, base operations, communications and transportation in the region.
The figures do not clearly include a cost estimate for repairing damage to US bases sustained in Iranian missile and drone attacks.
Why the bill kept growing
President Donald Trump launched the war jointly with Israel in February, predicting that the conflict would last a short time. The initial strategy relied first on expensive, high-end precision missiles to destroy Iran's defenses, with the plan to then switch to less expensive munitions, including gravity bombs such as the air-launched JDAMs, which are plentiful.
But an April ceasefire gave Iran time to dig out underground storage facilities, bringing back online some Iranian defenses, missiles and drones that had been inaccessible — forcing a longer and more expensive fight than first planned.
Trump has since imposed a naval blockade on Iran to starve it of oil export revenue, and has held out the possibility of restarting combat operations after the midterm elections. US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say the Pentagon has been planning to restart heavy fighting if ordered to do so.
Speaking on Tuesday at a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, Trump said the United States was "making an absolute fortune because of the situation" in the Middle East, and predicted the Iran war would "end very soon."
The political and household cost
The war's impact on global energy costs has weighed on support for Republican candidates and hurt Trump's approval ratings, Reuters reported, with the Republican Party holding only narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.
The strain is also reaching household budgets. The world's biggest consumer goods and food companies, from Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble to Nestle and Reckitt, have warned of further price hikes next year to cover rising energy, raw material and freight costs driven by the war, even as shoppers resist spending more on groceries.
Moody's Analytics estimates that the war has cost the average American household $2,000 so far.
For now, the $47 billion figure is an internal Pentagon estimate, not a public accounting — and with the possibility of renewed fighting after the election, it may not be the final one.
Sources: Reuters (Pentagon data obtained by Reuters, $47 billion total, more than 25% above the July estimate, $29 billion munitions, $6 billion equipment and platform losses, February launch, strategy and April ceasefire details, naval blockade, possible post-election restart, election and approval-rating context, consumer-goods price warnings); The Times of Israel (figures do not clearly include base-repair costs); Newsmax, citing The Hill (October 16 Central Command assessment, nearly $12 billion operating expenses, $7.6 billion Air Force costs, Trump rally remarks); Moody's Analytics via Newsmax ($2,000 per household estimate). The Pentagon estimate has not been made public and the Pentagon did not immediately comment; the post-election restart is described as a possibility, not a decision.