October has become the most dangerous month on record for commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with 28 confirmed and reported attacks on vessels so far this month, according to data compiled by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The running total since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28 has now reached 113 attacks.
Photo: U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate Airman Eben Boothby, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
"October has seen the highest number of ship attacks on record," said Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute who maintains its interactive shipping incident map. Most of the attacks recorded in September and October took place inside the Strait of Hormuz itself, the narrow waterway through which a large share of the Gulf's oil exports must pass.
The tally broadly matches data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which has recorded 120 incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider West Asia region since the conflict with Iran began. A Reuters review of the IMO list and MarineTraffic vessel data found that more than 30 supertankers — Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs — have been damaged in the attacks, including 11 in October alone. Each VLCC can carry about two million barrels of crude, and the damaged vessels account for roughly 3.5 percent of the global supertanker fleet, which numbers more than 900 ships.
The latest claims came at the end of the week. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Friday that two supertankers carrying a combined 4.5 million barrels of oil struck naval mines in the strait and were abandoned — a claim reported by Iranian state media that has not been independently confirmed. Iran's Fars news agency separately reported that another VLCC was hit on Saturday while exiting the strait. President Donald Trump has disputed Tehran's claims, accusing Iran of inventing attacks in order to push oil prices higher.
Despite the danger, shipowners have grown increasingly willing to load cargoes inside the Gulf. Daily freight rates exceeding $1 million, together with steeper discounts offered by regional producers against dated Brent, have lured more tankers back into the trade even as the attacks intensified.
The pace of the assaults has also set weekly records. Greece-based consultancy Marisks said a dozen ships were attacked between October 5 and October 11, the highest weekly number since the conflict began, and described October 2026 as "the most intense period of maritime attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the escalation of hostilities in March." UKMTO, the British maritime security service, had recorded 135 incidents related to the conflict as of October 16 and warned that it is struggling to capture the full picture because of insufficient voluntary reporting by shippers.
Raydan said Iran is seeking to slow the recovery in shipments and maintain pressure on global energy markets ahead of the United States' November midterm elections; Reuters previously reported, citing two senior Iranian officials, that Tehran had adopted such tactics. The pressure is visible in prices: Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, up more than 10 percent this month, after trading above $117.
Sources: Reuters (via Newswav), Anadolu Agency, Shafaq News