Photo: Geographer, CC BY-SA, via Wikimedia Commons. File photo of electricity pylons in England in 2012, not a photo of a US swing-state grid.
Three days before the midterm elections, voters in the states most likely to decide control of Congress are paying noticeably more to keep the lights on and their cars fuelled than they were a year ago — and that squeeze, more than almost any other issue, may shape how they vote on Tuesday, November 3.
Households in eight key battleground states are paying $50 to $60 more a month for electricity and gasoline combined than a year ago, according to a Reuters analysis of US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data published on Saturday. Across Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio, combined household spending on power and motor fuel rose between 13% and 17% in the first seven months of 2026 from a year earlier.
The average American household spent about $456 a month on electricity and gasoline combined in that period, the EIA figures show — roughly $54 a month more than a year ago, an increase of around 14%. Compared with 2019, energy costs are up by more than a third in every one of the eight swing states.
The pinch, state by state
The swing states track the national pattern closely, but the size of the hit varies. Monthly costs rose by $42 in Wisconsin, $50 in Michigan, $51 in Georgia, $59 in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, $60 in Ohio, $61 in Nevada and $62 in Arizona, according to the EIA data cited by Reuters.
That is money voters cannot easily avoid spending. As Reuters notes, voters can skip a restaurant meal or a holiday, but they cannot skip the drive to work or turn off the air conditioning during a triple-digit summer in Phoenix.
Two very different forces are behind the increase: a sudden, global shock to gasoline prices, and a slower, local rise in electricity bills driven by grid costs, utility decisions and growing demand.
Pain at the pump
The primary force pushing up gasoline prices this year, Reuters reports, is the US war with Iran. Since the conflict broke out on February 28 and began disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pump prices have climbed to levels not seen since the summer of 2022.
Estimated household spending on gasoline in the swing states was up 19% to 23% in the first nine months of this year, EIA data show. In September alone, spending in Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina was about 40% higher than a year earlier, while spending in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin was up by more than a third.
Nevada households face the highest fuel bill of the eight states, at roughly $360 a month this year, compared with around $300 a month in 2025. Georgia, by contrast, sells some of the cheapest gasoline in the country — but its households are also among those that drive the most, averaging around 91 gallons a month compared with around 66 gallons for the average US household, according to Federal Highway Administration data cited by Reuters. That higher mileage leaves Georgia households with monthly fuel bills of around $324 this year, compared with around $260 a month in 2025.
Meter momentum: power bills climbing for years
Electricity prices tell a different story. They have been climbing for years, largely because of decisions made closer to home, Reuters reports. Average residential power bills in the swing states rose between 15% and 58% since 2019, and by an average of around 7% year-on-year across the eight states.
The steepest increases have been in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The typical Pennsylvania household paid about $182 a month for electricity this year, up 12% from last year and up 58% since 2019 — now the highest average power bill of the eight states, ahead of Georgia and Arizona, which had topped the list for most of the past 15 years. Ohio is not far behind, with bills up 9.4% from a year ago and up 53% since 2019.
Both Pennsylvania and Ohio sit inside PJM, the country's largest power grid operator, serving 13 states and Washington, DC. Its capacity auctions, which pay power plants to remain operational to meet future demand, have set three consecutive pricing records this year, Reuters reports. Some of that reflects rising demand from data centers, but it has also been driven by grid investments, natural gas prices and power plant retirements.
Elsewhere, Michigan saw its bills rise 8% this year, as regulators approved rate hikes for utilities serving millions of customers. North Carolina's rose 6%, Wisconsin's 5% and Arizona's 5%. Georgia's power bills barely moved this year, up about 1% — but that came after six rate increases in two years and a voter backlash that cost two incumbents their seats on the state's utility commission in 2025. Nevada has the lowest power bills of the eight states, and prices have risen the least since 2019, helped by massive solar farms that can generate over half of daytime electricity supplies during the summer.
Who gets the blame — and what it means on Tuesday
Voters tend to punish incumbents for high prices, whether or not those incumbents actually control them, Reuters notes. Electricity rates are generally approved by state utility regulators — appointed by governors in most swing states, elected in Georgia and Arizona — while wholesale power costs are shaped by regional grid operators and gasoline prices are set largely by global crude markets.
That matters for how Tuesday's results should be read. The governors' races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin bear directly on electricity, because governors determine who sits on the commissions that approve rate increases. The Senate races bear more on federal energy, trade and foreign policy, which shape what happens at the pump.
Many voters are putting much of the blame on the White House. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that some 78% of Americans blame President Donald Trump's policies for rising prices that are outpacing their earnings, Reuters reports, with tariffs and the Iran war bearing the brunt of the blame. Pushback against data centers has also been rising: 77% of people polled by Reuters/Ipsos earlier this year cited concerns over rising electricity costs as a chief reason for opposing data centers.
A separate Hart Research survey of voters in competitive House districts, published in October, found gas prices (46%) and utility costs (37%) ranking as voters' second- and third-most important voting issues after groceries, and that 60% said Trump is making energy prices worse.
Whoever wins on Tuesday will inherit these bills, Reuters concludes — though their ability to do much about them will be limited. Electricity costs continue to be pulled higher by rising consumption from tech firms and manufacturers as well as grid upgrades, while gasoline remains hostage to events in the Middle East.
Sources: Reuters; US Energy Information Administration data via Reuters; Reuters/Ipsos poll via Reuters; Hart Research survey via Climate Power.