Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaking at the Texas Capitol in January 2025. Photo: Antonioaesparza / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
The race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas is turning into one of the closest contests in the country. With early voting set to begin on October 19, a pair of new polls released this week shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton separated by just a few points — well within the margin of error.
A Marist poll released October 14 put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters, with 2% backing another candidate and 4% still undecided. Among registered voters, Talarico's edge was four points, 48% to 44% — down from a six-point lead in Marist's September survey. The poll surveyed 1,196 registered Texas voters from October 8 to 11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points among likely voters.
A separate survey from ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute, released October 13, found a similar picture: Talarico leading 48% to 44% among 617 likely voters, with a 4.4-point margin of error. That was also a slight step back from September, when the same pollster had Talarico ahead 49% to 43%.
The trend is consistent across nearly every October survey. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project had Talarico up 50% to 47%; UMass Lowell showed a 45%-45% tie; YouGov measured 50% to 44%; The New York Times found 51% to 45%; and Fox News recorded 51% to 49%.
Beneath the top lines, independents are breaking hard for the Democrat. Marist found 52% of likely independent voters backing Talarico against 30% for Paxton; ReconMR put the split at 60% to 30%. Geography tells a familiar Texas story: Talarico dominates in Austin and holds a wide lead in San Antonio and South Texas, while Paxton runs up an 18-point advantage in rural areas. Houston is essentially tied, and Talarico holds a narrow edge in Dallas–Fort Worth.
Favorability numbers explain some of the dynamic. Talarico is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 43%, while Paxton's numbers are upside down at 40% favorable to 55% unfavorable.
The stakes are historic. A Texas Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate race since 1988, and national money is flooding the state on both sides. "The race for Senate will come down to three things: turnout, turnout, turnout," said Lindsey Hendren, a senior research analyst at ReconMR, in a news release.
In the governor's race, the same Marist poll showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45% among likely voters — also within the margin of error. Election Day is November 3.
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