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National Polls and House Projections
With three days remaining before the United States midterm elections, Democrats hold a lead in national polls while millions of Americans cast early ballots. According to RealClearPolling data, Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, with 51.4 percent support compared to 43.2 percent.
An Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday indicates that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to maintain control of the House of Representatives, while 31 percent expect Republicans to retain the chamber. Expectations for the Senate remain closer, with 39 percent anticipating a Democratic majority and 36 percent predicting a Republican one.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, stated that polling suggests the House is likely to flip to the Democrats, while the Senate race remains more uncertain.
Early Voting Turnout Increases
An Associated Press analysis published on Friday showed that more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or via mail five days before Election Day. This figure represents an increase of nearly 10 million compared to the same point during the 2022 midterms, with particularly high turnout in states featuring competitive Senate races.
- In Texas, early voters surpassed 6.3 million by Wednesday, marking a 50 percent increase from 4.2 million at the same stage in 2022.
- Georgia recorded more than 2.5 million ballots cast by Friday morning, exceeding the 2.3 million early votes from the previous midterms.
- Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas all saw early voting increases of over 30 percent compared to 2022.
Turnout data does not indicate specific candidate choices or final outcomes. However, reports from polling stations noted high participation among young voters.
Final Campaign Push by Political Figures
President Donald Trump updated his weekend schedule to include in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday to mobilize Republican voters, reversing an earlier decision to rely solely on telephone campaign events. Trump also held a campaign event in Florida on Friday.
Other prominent figures joined the final weekend efforts. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi. In Texas, candidates focused their campaigns on populous areas such as Harris County. Additional campaign events featured various gubernatorial and Senate candidates across competitive states, including Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio.
Source: US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges