Photo: U.S. Navy (public domain) via Wikimedia Commons. File photo of flight operations aboard USS George H.W. Bush in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, May 2026 — not the current buildup.
The United States has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after next week's midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people briefed on the conversations — the clearest sign yet that Washington and Israel are readying a new round of heavy combat in the eight-month-old war.
The warnings, delivered through diplomatic and military channels, are among a growing number of indications that the two allies are preparing fresh strikes aimed at degrading Tehran's strength and pushing it toward negotiations, the Journal reported.
The buildup already under way
The US military is sending an additional Patriot missile-defense system to Israel from Texas, according to flight-tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement, the Journal reported. US troops have also been moved off Middle East bases left exposed to Iranian fire, and forces in the region are restocking munitions while bomber aircraft and fighter jets prepare for strikes.
An additional aircraft-carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit are also poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out, the Journal reported. The war, in its eighth month, is estimated to have cost $47.1 billion as of mid-October, with about 60 percent — $29 billion — attributed to munitions such as Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, according to estimates shared with lawmakers.
What Trump has — and hasn't — decided
President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on going ahead, but is leaning toward a large post-election attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, people familiar with his thinking told the Journal. Trump has promised not to attack before the November 3 midterms, and when asked about a post-election strike he said "anything is possible," Haaretz reported.
At a rally in Texas on Tuesday, Trump said Tehran had sought a deal but was delaying negotiations: "It's a question of when do I want to end it... They've wanted to make a deal, but they like tapping it along." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei hit back on Wednesday, accusing Washington of "contempt for diplomacy" over Trump's remarks about a 14-point memorandum of understanding reached in Islamabad.
Regional mediators are still trying to revive talks, but their efforts have yet to bear fruit, the Journal reported. After exit polls in Israel's election were released on Tuesday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel faced "a unique historic opportunity to remove the existential threat from Iran," Haaretz reported.
Markets react as diplomacy stalls
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as traders priced in the risk of renewed strikes: front-month US crude jumped 2.3 percent to $102.16 a barrel and Brent added 1.4 percent to $115.47, according to market reports. ING commodity strategists noted that if the elections pass without renewed strikes on Iran, "that might be enough for the market's risk premium to start eroding."
US Naval Forces Central Command advised vessels with no need to move between ports in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz to stay away. Yemen's Houthi militants claimed they struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile; Saudi authorities have not confirmed the claimed strike or any damage.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal (Gulf warnings, Patriot movement, troop moves, munitions restocking, carrier group, $47.1 billion cost estimate, Trump's leaning, stalled mediation); Haaretz (Trump's "anything is possible," Netanyahu's remark); Indian Express and Dawn/Anadolu (corroboration of the Journal's report); TradingView/SeekingAlpha (oil prices, ING note, naval advisory, Houthi claim). The warnings and Trump's intentions are attributed to people briefed on the conversations and people familiar with his thinking; no final decision to strike has been announced.