Photo: PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY Official website / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
Slowing Advances and Rising Russian Casualties
Data from independent observers and Ukraine's military indicates that Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine have slowed significantly in 2026. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces captured 117.38 square kilometers in the first 10 months of 2026, representing a daily advance rate of 0.38 square kilometers. In contrast, Russian forces seized 5,304 square kilometers in 2025 and 3,604 square kilometers in 2024.
Assessments from ISW note that Russia lost both firmly controlled and contested territory during September and October. Ukraine’s General Staff estimated that 381,300 Russian military personnel were killed or seriously wounded between January 1 and October 31. Estimated Russian losses reached 42,860 in July, 46,230 in September, and 54,400 in October, exceeding Russia's estimated monthly recruitment capacity of 24,000 to 30,000 personnel.
Infrastructure Escalation and Localized Evacuation
Ukrainian officials reported that worsening battlefield trends coincided with an escalation in Russian long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. During the week ending November 6, Russian forces launched 2,346 drones and over 80 missiles, peaking on November 3 with 370 drones and 76 missiles. The strikes left hundreds of thousands of families facing winter power outages.
Among recent civilian casualties, at least 50 people were killed in an attack on a humanitarian aid resilience center in the village of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region. Meanwhile, a six-day localized ceasefire in Oleshky, brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump, enabled the evacuation of 800 residents. Russian military reporter Vladimir Romanov was subsequently arrested after reporting that 17 evacuation buses traveled toward Ukraine and four went toward Russia.
Strikes on Oil Refineries and Export Complications
Ukraine intensified strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, hitting eight oil refineries within seven days. Target facilities included the Ufa complex, the Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Nizhny Novgorod, a station in the Samara region, and refineries in Yaroslavl and Ryazan. Ukrainian actions aimed to reduce Russian export revenue and disrupt an October 9 proposal by US President Donald Trump inviting Russia to sell 1.8 million tonnes of diesel to global markets.
Although the Kremlin loaded four tankers with diesel fuel intended for sale to lower transport prices, the Financial Times reported that the vessels failed to find buyers willing to accept potential legal risks. US Senator Richard Blumenthal warned a Greek shipping operator against offloading cargo in the US, citing statutory sanctions under the Lindsey Graham Act. The Kremlin dismissed reports regarding the unsold tankers as fake news.
Source: Russia’s land gains in Ukraine dwindle as its diesel reportedly goes unsold