President Donald Trump. Official White House portrait by Daniel Torok, via Wikimedia Commons (public domain).
President Donald Trump is facing a decision that could define the rest of his presidency: whether to end the eight-month war with Iran, reignite it with a new round of major strikes, or hold the current course of blockade and sanctions. With the midterm elections over, his closest advisers are pulling him in sharply different directions — and foreign allies are racing to shape the choice before he makes it.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the debate inside the White House has broken into three camps, each backing a different future for the conflict. Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff are pressing for a negotiated settlement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, have backed a return to major combat operations. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have argued for tightening sanctions and keeping the naval blockade on Iranian trade in place.
Trump himself has sent mixed signals. On Friday, he told reporters the United States had made "a lot of progress" with Iran and that Tehran wants an agreement. "We're dealing with them now. They want to make a deal," he said, while also claiming American forces had recently destroyed an Iranian air defence system. A day earlier, he sounded a darker note: "Now we will make a decision. I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I will have to. You'll know soon enough."
Three camps, three different futures
The split at the top of the administration has sharpened since Tuesday's midterm elections, in which voters handed Republicans heavy losses and Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. Vance has publicly questioned whether the war was worth its cost, and US officials told the Journal that before posting his criticism, the vice president told Trump he intended to blame the defeat on the war.
The case for a deal rests with Vance and Witkoff, who have sought Trump's continued backing for diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Axios has reported that Vance has been leading renewed contacts with Tehran, including a direct channel to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei, and that Qatari mediators have drafted a sequence of confidence-building steps that could pave the way for formal negotiations.
The case for renewed strikes is being made by Hegseth and Admiral Cooper, who have supported a return to major combat operations during recent briefings on military options, according to US officials cited by the Journal. Several hawkish outside advisers have also called Trump since Election Day to argue that his legacy depends on forcing Iran to surrender its nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is still pushing for renewed strikes, while Gulf allies are more sceptical of escalation.
The third camp — Rubio, Bessent and, according to Axios, CIA Director John Ratcliffe — wants neither a deal nor a new offensive for now, arguing that the blockade and economic pressure should be given more time to force concessions from Tehran.
Qatar's race to stop a new escalation
Qatari officials said on Friday they had launched an 11th-hour attempt to stave off a new American operation and bridge the gaps between the two sides. Speaking at Oxford University, Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said: "Our mediators are working as we speak to avoid another wave of escalation in the region." He urged Washington and Tehran not to wait for a "perfect moment" to reach a deal to end the war, warning that the crisis "cannot be left unresolved."
Qatar's ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, spoke with Trump on Friday, and Gulf officials said there were signs that both sides were looking for an off-ramp. Iranian officials are set to return to Doha in the coming days, possibly as early as Saturday, to discuss a prospective deal, according to the Journal.
Axios has reported that the deal under discussion would shrink the timetable for preliminary talks from 60 days to two days, moving almost immediately into nuclear negotiations. Under a Qatari draft of confidence-building steps, the United States would lift its naval blockade and release some frozen Iranian funds, while Iran would formally invite inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to its bombed nuclear sites — followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed nuclear talks.
A decision shaped by the midterms
The debate comes a day after explosions were reported on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday evening, following what a US official described as small-scale strikes. The United States has conducted several such limited strikes in recent weeks while cautioning that they do not signal a return to full-scale combat operations.
But preparations for a larger operation have continued. The Journal reported that Hegseth and Admiral Cooper have spent weeks preparing for major combat operations, and that the ideal timeframe to resume them begins later this month, when additional equipment arrives in the Middle East, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group. The US State Department has also offered a reward of up to $20 million for information about Iran's nuclear programme.
Tehran, for its part, is warning of wider retaliation. Iran's army said it would not allow US military bases in the region to be rebuilt, claiming, according to Iran's Fars news agency, that more than 228 locations or facilities at American bases across the region had been severely damaged or destroyed. The claim has not been independently verified.
What happens next may become clearer within hours. US Central Command has said it will issue an announcement concerning Iran on Saturday morning, without disclosing its content. For now, both tracks — threats and talks — are running at once, and the president's decision, in his own words, is coming soon.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Axios, Al Jazeera.