Photo: KimonBerlin, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0). File photo of the New York Stock Exchange, not a photo of the ADP report itself.
US private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, beating expectations and extending a second month of solid hiring, according to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, November 4. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a gain of 69,000, after a previously reported 90,000 increase in September — a figure ADP revised down to 86,000.
The report, produced by ADP Research with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab from payroll data covering more than 26 million US private-sector workers, landed a day after Democrats swept control of Congress in the midterm elections and two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its official October employment report on Friday. It gives the Federal Reserve one more piece of evidence about a labour market that has stayed firmer than many feared, even as the US-Israeli war with Iran has pushed up energy costs.
Where the jobs came from
Services accounted for almost all of the gain, adding 82,000 jobs, while goods-producing industries added just 4,000. Trade, transportation and utilities led the way with 39,000 new jobs, followed by education and health services with 28,000, leisure and hospitality with 19,000, financial activities with 15,000 and other services with 10,000.
Construction added 13,000 jobs, partly offset by a loss of 8,000 in natural resources and mining and 1,000 in manufacturing. Information shed 2,000 jobs. The clear weak spot was professional and business services, which lost 27,000 jobs — its third consecutive monthly decline — a reminder that white-collar hiring remains uneven even as the headline number beat forecasts.
By region, the South added 47,000 jobs and the West 28,000, against 9,000 in the Midwest and 3,000 in the Northeast. Employers of all sizes hired: small establishments added 28,000, medium-sized firms 33,000 and large employers 24,000.
Pay growth holds steady
Pay gains were little changed. Base pay for private-sector workers rose 3.2 percent from a year earlier, while gross pay was up 4.7 percent, according to ADP Pay Insights. Job-stayers saw base pay rise 3.0 percent, while job-changers saw 4.8 percent — and gross pay for job-changers jumped 7.6 percent.
"Employers of all sizes were hiring last month, and our data suggests that job-changers were lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher base pay," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. "Taken together, earnings growth for these workers hit its fastest pace since March 2024."
What it means for the Fed — and for Friday
The ADP numbers follow Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed openings rising to about 7.52 million in September, above the roughly 7.15 million markets had expected. Reuters noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 1.06 open jobs for every unemployed person in September, up from 1.02 in August.
That resilience keeps the prospect of another Federal Reserve rate rise on the table. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent at its October meeting, and its next decision comes on December 8-9. Markets had already raised the implied probability of a December increase after the JOLTS data; a second solid hiring report strengthens the case for the Fed to stay focused on inflation, which the Fed's preferred PCE gauge put at 3.6 percent in September.
Friday's official report is still the one that matters most. Reuters' survey of economists expects private payrolls to have risen by 64,000 in October, after a 46,000 gain in September, with total nonfarm payrolls up 65,000 after 29,000, and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2 percent. ADP itself has been a poor gauge of the official private-payroll estimate in the past, so Wednesday's beat should be read as a signal, not a preview — if Friday disappoints, the story will change quickly.
For now, though, the message from the payroll data is steady rather than spectacular: hiring continues, pay is still growing, and the labour market is entering the final stretch of the year on firmer footing than the gloomier forecasts suggested.
Sources: Reuters, "US private payrolls rise in October, ADP says," November 4, 2026; ADP National Employment Report, October 2026, via PR Newswire, November 4, 2026. Friday's official figures are forecasts from a Reuters survey of economists, not results.