Photo: Mark Neyman / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)
Record Arab Turnout Drives Parliamentary Surge
Arab-led parties in Israel are projected to secure a record 18 seats in the 120-member Knesset, according to exit polling data following parliamentary voting. The projected gains for the Joint List and Ra'am follow a major increase in participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel, with turnout in these communities reaching approximately 80 percent, breaking records set in 1999.
Overall voter turnout reached 77.7 percent, marking the highest general participation rate since 1999, as reported by the Central Elections Committee. Updated exit polls indicated a deadlock between the main political factions, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party bloc and an opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party tied at 51 seats each.
Coalition Calculations and Political Hurdles
With 61 seats required to form a majority government, both major blocs face significant challenges in securing a governing coalition. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra'am, expressed hope that final results would allow an anti-Netanyahu coalition to reach the necessary threshold. Abbas, whose party currently holds five seats and previously joined the governing coalition from 2021 to 2022, confirmed that both major political sides reached out to his party before and after the vote.
Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas noted that forming a government could prove difficult for opposition leadership due to campaign commitments. Key factors influencing potential coalition talks include:
- Campaign promises made by Jewish-led parties not to form coalitions with Arab factions.
- Policy demands from Arab-led lists that Jewish-led coalitions may be reluctant to support.
- The crucial role of Arab voters, who constitute roughly 21 percent of Israel's 10 million residents.
Campaign Reactions and Turnout Dynamics
During the final hours of voting, Prime Minister Netanyahu launched last-ditch efforts to mobilize his base, warning of high turnout in Arab communities. Likud supporters drove through Jerusalem broadcasting the Islamic call to prayer from vehicles, while Netanyahu posted images on social media showing long lines at polling stations in Arab areas, warning against a government that includes Arab lawmakers Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi. Arab politicians condemned these tactics as racist and inflammatory.
The high turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel occurred despite ongoing frustration over systemic discrimination and more than 100 laws passed by the Knesset that discriminate against their community. The surge brought even traditional boycotters to the polls during what commentators described as a critical moment for the population.
Source: Arab parties could win record 18 seats in Israel election, exit polls show