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Exit Polls Reveal Tightly Contested Israeli Election
Exit polls from Israel's parliamentary election indicate a close race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main challenger, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot. Projections show that neither side currently has a clear path to securing the 61-seat majority required to form a governing coalition in the 120-seat Knesset.
Projections from Channel 12 place the Netanyahu-led bloc at 52 seats and the opposition bloc headed by Eisenkot's Yashar party at 49 seats. Channel 13 projections previously indicated a 51-51 seat tie between the two sides. Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to remain the largest single party in parliament with an estimated 27 seats, compared to 21 seats for Yashar. Arab political parties are projected to win 19 seats collectively.
Political Leaders React to Early Results
Addressing supporters at Yashar party headquarters, opposition leader Eisenkot declared that the public had voted for change and that Israel was beginning a new era. Netanyahu asserted that his Likud party demonstrated dominance and called for the creation of a national right-wing government, while accusing television networks of attempting to discourage his supporters through political projections.
Reactions from other political figures included:
- Yair Golan: The Democrats leader stated that voters had removed the current government and pledged to work on forming a new administration.
- Mansour Abbas: The Ra'am party leader expressed hope that final results would allow the opposition bloc and his party to reach the 61 seats needed to form a government. Ra'am is projected to win around seven seats.
- Bezalel Smotrich: The far-right Finance Minister announced his party was projected to gain seven seats and pledged to expand Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.
- Itamar Ben-Gvir: The far-right National Security Minister praised the performance of his Otzma Yehudit party.
High Voter Turnout and Campaign Friction
The Central Elections Committee reported an overall voter turnout of 77.7 percent, marking the highest participation level since 1999 and a 7.1 percentage point increase from 2022. Turnout among military personnel exceeded 68 percent by 5:00 p.m. local time, and more than 60,000 Israeli citizens returned from abroad to cast their ballots.
The election atmosphere included heated disputes between political leaders. Arab politicians, including Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen and Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas, accused Netanyahu of using scare tactics and inciting hatred against Palestinian citizens in Israel. Netanyahu issued statements on social media criticizing Arab voters, referring to them as supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, accusing them of raiding polling stations, and urging right-wing voters to support Likud.
Post-Election Process and Coalition Timeline
Because no single party has ever won a standalone 61-seat majority in Israeli parliamentary history, parties must negotiate alliances to build a governing coalition. Final vote tallies are expected by Friday, with official results formally published on November 4.
Following the final count, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of forming a government. The designated candidate will have up to 42 days to negotiate a coalition. If no coalition is formed, Netanyahu and his cabinet will remain in power as a caretaker government until potential new elections are scheduled.
Source: Five key takeaways from Israel’s parliamentary elections