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Democrats hold an 8-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday, one week before the November 3 midterm elections that will decide control of Congress.
The poll, conducted October 19–20 among 1,289 registered voters, found Democrats ahead 52% to 44% among likely voters, USA Today reported. Among registered voters the Democratic advantage was 10 points. President Donald Trump's approval rating stood at 40% among likely voters, with 59% disapproving, while 44% of likely voters said their November vote will be a vote against Trump, compared with 21% who said they will vote to support him, USA Today reported.
The margin of error is 3.8 percentage points among likely voters and 3.7 points among registered voters, NPR reported. That means the Democratic lead is outside the margin of error — but a poll is a snapshot, not a result, and the same survey contains clear warning signs for Democrats about just how large any win might be.
Cost of living dominates the campaign
Economic concerns dominate voters' priorities. In the poll, 34% of voters cited the cost of living as their top issue, narrowly ahead of preserving democracy at 33%, with immigration at 12% and foreign policy and health care each at 5%, USA Today reported. About one in three respondents said they had faced financial hardship in the past year, NPR reported, and 38% said their personal finances had worsened over the past year, while 44% said they had stayed about the same.
That squeeze is the backdrop to the whole election. Democrats have campaigned on the Trump administration's tariffs and the war in Iran as drivers of US price rises, while Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers and need only to limit their losses to keep control of Congress for the final two years of Trump's term.
Enthusiasm — and the warning signs
Democrats also hold an enthusiasm advantage: 71% of their likely voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans, NPR reported. NPR's analysis concluded that Democrats are favored to gain control of the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up.
But the poll also shows why a Democratic wave may be limited. Recent redistricting, including mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled states, has tilted congressional seats in Republicans' favor nationally, according to NPR's analysis of the survey. And Democratic voters themselves sound nervous: 81% of Democratic likely voters said they believed the Democratic candidate in their district would win, compared with 98% who said they would vote Democratic — a 17-point gap the poll's analysts flagged as notable nervousness within the party.
What else voters are watching this week
The economy debate gets another flashpoint on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. EDT — midnight Bangladesh time. Markets put about a 90% probability on the Fed holding rates steady in the current 3.75%–4.00% range, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool cited by Reuters, after the central bank raised rates by a quarter point last month for the first time since 2023. No decision has been announced yet; this run is not reporting one.
For voters, the connection is direct: the cost of living leads every other issue in the poll, and whatever the Fed signals about future rate moves will shape borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and credit cards in the run-up to Election Day.
Sources: NPR/PBS News/Marist poll (conducted October 19–20, 1,289 registered voters) as reported by USA Today (52%–44% likely-voter generic ballot, 10-point registered-voter lead, 40% Trump approval among likely voters, 44% voting against Trump vs 21% for him, issue breakdown, 38% finances worsened / 44% same) and NPR (margins of error, 71% vs 61% enthusiasm, House favored to Democrats / Senate toss-up, one-third financial hardship, redistricting tilt, 81% vs 98% nervousness gap); Reuters via CME FedWatch (about 90% probability of a hold, 3.75%–4.00% range, September quarter-point hike). Poll figures are survey estimates subject to sampling error, not election results.