Image source: Pixabay
US Midterms Expected to Bring Little Shift in Asia-Pacific Policy
Governments and business leaders across the Asia-Pacific region are closely monitoring the upcoming United States midterm elections amid ongoing trade tensions and energy disruptions. Despite the potential for Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, analysts suggest that significant changes to U.S. foreign, trade, and energy policies remain unlikely during the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
Economic Pressure from Middle East Conflict
The Asia-Pacific region has suffered severe economic fallout from the military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began in January. Following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, major energy shortages emerged across the region. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in March due to its heavy reliance on Gulf crude oil imports. Other regional economies, including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timor, have seen foreign exchange reserves depleted by rising fuel costs, while countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have increased spending on fuel subsidies.
Despite widespread public opposition to the conflict in Asia, experts note that a Democratic-controlled Congress would face structural limits in forcing an end to military action. While oversight hearings and potential cabinet impeachments could occur, President Trump's veto power makes overriding legislation on military funding difficult without a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress.
Tariffs and Trade Outlook
U.S. trade measures continue to weigh on Asian exporters. Following the Supreme Court's decision to strike down previous reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. administration introduced new tariffs in July targeting 60 trading partners, citing concerns over forced labor. Affected Asian nations include China, Japan, South Korea, and several Southeast Asian states.
Trade experts indicate that congressional shifts are unlikely to dismantle these trade barriers. While some analysts point to potential minor exceptions or relief pushed by lawmakers, fundamental shifts in American trade policy are not anticipated until the 2028 presidential election cycle.
Technology Restrictions and Regional Security
Analysts expect bipartisan consensus in Congress to drive stricter controls on Chinese technology regardless of election outcomes. Upcoming legislative measures under consideration include:
- The Remote Access Security Act, expanding export controls to remote access of U.S. technology.
- The Chip Security Act, requiring verification of advanced artificial intelligence chip locations.
- The MATCH Act, aiming to align international allies' equipment controls with U.S. standards.
Beyond trade and technology, Asia-Pacific nations seek clearer U.S. security commitments in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. However, broad shifts in executive foreign policy direction may remain unpredictable as domestic political pressures evolve in Washington.
Source: War, tariffs and China: What the US midterms mean for the Asia-Pacific